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元大台灣50

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元大高股息

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台積電

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聯發科

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元大台灣價值高息

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鴻海

美元台幣匯率

32.634

台幣日圓匯率

4.791

台幣歐元匯率

0.029

台幣韓元匯率

44.317

台幣英鎊匯率

0.024

台幣人民幣匯率

0.224

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元大台灣50 ▸ |

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元大高股息 ▸ |

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台積電 ▸ |

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聯發科 ▸ |

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元大台灣價值高息 ▸ |

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鴻海 ▸ |
美元台幣匯率 ▸ 32.634 | 台幣日圓匯率 ▸ 4.791 | 台幣歐元匯率 ▸ 0.029 | 台幣韓元匯率 ▸ 44.317 | 台幣英鎊匯率 ▸ 0.024 | 台幣人民幣匯率 ▸ 0.224
綜合

中鋼今年獲利可望勝去年!但中國每年兩億噸鋼鐵待消化、東南亞又新增產量…新董座將如何應戰?

中鋼今年獲利可望勝去年!但中國每年兩億噸鋼鐵待消化、東南亞又新增產量…新董座將如何應戰?

中鋼今年獲利可望勝去年!但中國每年兩億噸鋼鐵待消化、東南亞又新增產量…新董座將如何應戰?

中鋼今年獲利可望勝去年!但中國每年兩億噸鋼鐵待消化、東南亞又新增產量…新董座將如何應戰?

今周刊/撰文‧曹悅華

儘管明年鋼市趨向樂觀,川普當選美國總統卻將為鋼鐵產業發展埋下變數。眼看未來鋼市將受劇烈衝擊,台灣鋼鐵龍頭中鋼的轉型迫在眉睫。

「Run, don’t walk!」(跑起來,不要用走的)兩個月前剛接任中鋼董事長的黃建智,接受本刊專訪時,引用輝達創辦人黃仁勳的「金句」,不只要求同仁「跑起來」,而且要「Run fast」(跑得更快)。因為在他眼中,衝擊鋼市的兩波海嘯即將來襲。

黃建智所指的第一波海嘯,是中國鋼鐵產量連續多年處在供過於求狀態,鋼材、半成品快速失序外溢至國際市場,在今年10億噸產量中,就有一億噸拿來出口。由於中國房地產不振,加上「鐵公基」工程建設需求已經過了全盛期,他預估,未來中國每年會有兩億到三億噸產量待消化。對此,中鋼已正式對財政部申請提告中國熱軋反傾銷,期待以立案課稅因應,預期明年第一季有結果。

而第二波海嘯,則是東南亞新增產能帶來的威脅。依據東南亞鋼鐵協會統計,2026年東南亞將新增7600萬噸鋼鐵產量,到2030年甚至將擴張到1億5千萬噸。黃建智保守估計,屆時每年約有3千萬到5千萬噸不等的低價鋼品流出,亞洲市場將演變為價格戰,台灣也會受波及。

攤開財報,中鋼今年前10月營收3018億元,年減0.69%;今年前三季每股稅後純益(EPS)0.12元,稅後淨利逾18億元,已較去年同期轉虧為盈。由於第四季是傳統旺季,中鋼預估,今年全年營收及獲利都將超越去年。

「當中國的鋼品不能進來台灣,貿易商不會呆呆地等,會馬上找到東南亞產品來代替。拚價格,中鋼不一定占到便宜,沒有發展出特色的話,很容易被取代。」受訪時,黃建智不斷強調中鋼轉型的急迫性。

在9月10日升任中鋼董事長後,黃建智快速定調延續過去「二軸三轉」路線:前者,就是發展精緻鋼品及綠能產業,後者則指數位轉型、低碳轉型與供應鏈轉型。

主軸:拚精緻鋼品VP值 

黃建智認為,東南亞溢出的鋼品遲早會賣來台灣,中鋼必須趕快提高產品的附加價值,從過去強調CP值、俗又大碗,轉成重視價值感受的VP值導向。他以台積電為例,當創造出產品的價值,客戶就無法任意出價。而中鋼突圍的關鍵,便是發展精緻鋼品。

所謂精緻鋼品,是從中鋼現有5成的高品級鋼品中,剔除生產困難導致良率較低,以及競爭激烈拿不到好價錢而虧錢的產品,找出「具高技術含量、高獲利能力及高產業效益」的鋼品,包含精密鍛件用鋼、高值手工具鋼、高功能結構鋼、尖端超強韌鋼、綠色能源及家電用鋼、先進合金碳鋼、跨世代車用鋼、超能效電磁鋼八大品項。

「一般鋼品『毛3到4』,但精緻鋼品的毛利率至少雙位數!」黃建智透露,去年精緻鋼品訂單量占整體近1成,毛利占比卻逾7成,目標到2030年時精緻鋼品訂單量可突破兩成。

由於精緻鋼品客戶端應用大多具差異化,須開發專門材料,他坦言發展需要時間,「不會立竿見影,就像小樹種下去,你要等它長大。」

其實早在2006年,中鋼就開始針對具規模性的用鋼產業如何升級,投入研發工作,近一年則更進一步透過田野調查深入聚焦,除藉此定位出目標客戶、了解其強項,也掌握相關產品的時程規畫,從中找到客戶製造產品時的痛點並加以解決。

(閱讀全文…https://bit.ly/4hYnAtm)

更多內容,請參閱最新一期《今周刊》(第1457期)

中鋼今年獲利可望勝去年!但中國每年兩億噸鋼鐵待消化、東南亞又新增產量…新董座將如何應戰?〉這篇文章最早發佈於《668 News》。

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